There really is no such thing as a sure thing. As of a few weeks ago Basel III, with its aggressive capital and liquidity requirements for banks, seemed to be as inevitable as the seasons. Likewise, US financial reform, i.e., Frank-Dodd, as of June 25 looked like a done deal after Congress pulled an epic all-nighter. But now after a couple of days, some G-20 dithering, a death in the US Senate and a suddenly wavering senator, things don’t appear to be so certain. To add to the uncertainty is worry that the world will fall into another recession. The impact of this uncertainty is also being felt in capital markets: according to a late June Bloomberg story “the percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress is at the highest in six months, a sign debt investors expect the economy to slow and defaults to rise.”